Abstrakt

The study on credit risk measurement based on the combined models

Zhang Bao-Shuai, Qin Xiao-Tie

The innovative point of this paper is to use the GARCH-t Model to fit the actual fluctuation of assets and calculate the volatility of the value of stock rights, and then to build a new model to measure the credit risk in association with option theory—the KMVGARCH- t Model, and finally study the new model’s capability to evaluate the credit risk of listed companies in the stock market in China based on 10 ST companies and 10 paired non-ST companies. The results indicate: the distance to default can better measure in Credit Risk Evaluation of Public Companies, this means the KMV-GARCH-t models has some applicability in China.