Abstrakt

Risk assessment of waterway emergencies in Yangtzen river by using fuzzy logic

Deng Shou Cheng, Wu Qing, Chu Xiu Min

Emergency response level and emergency capability are the critical factors for risk assessment of waterway emergencies in inland rivers. Emergency response level is determined by the consequence or possible impact caused by disaster or a serious accident, and emergency capability identifies the capabilities and resources available to reduce the damage of the emergency events. In this paper, a fuzzy logic method for risk assessment of waterway emergencies is suggested. First, fuzzy weighted average approach was proposed for the assessment of emergency response level. Triangular fuzzy number is defined to present the uncertain and vague judgment which exists in the criteria of emergency response level in Yangtze River. The detailed calculation of finding fuzzy weighted average is given. Second, fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach was applied for the assessment of emergency capability. The index system is established where capability attributes are distracted according to the formal four-phases of risk management in Yangtze River. At last, the risk level of waterway emergencies is defined in considering the combination of the emergency response level and emergency capability. It is hoped that the risk assessing method would provide decision support in dealing with waterway emergencies in Yangtze River